[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-JP2026031020503863980":3,"related-JP2026031020503863980":31},{"pageSize":4,"id":5,"productLine":6,"status":7,"articleCode":8,"articleType":9,"showStyle":7,"mediaType":10,"articleTitle":11,"coverImage":12,"listImage":12,"introduction":13,"description":14,"nonVipDescription":15,"postTime":16,"viewTime":16,"sortNumber":17,"isFree":18,"isShowList":7,"isRecommend":18,"linkType":7,"isOriginal":6,"hasMiniUrl":18,"hasAdvertising":18,"createBy":19,"updateBy":19,"createTime":20,"visitCount":21,"isLiked":18,"realSearch":22,"isRead":18,"productId":23,"isCollected":18,"collectCount":24,"vipExclusive":18,"allowComment":7,"style":25,"canCopy":18,"likeCount":26,"seoKeywords":15,"articleModuleVoList":27,"extendContentList":28,"noteCount":7,"categoryList":29,"dailyKeywordList":30},10,7938,"1",1,"JP2026031020503863980","1041018",3,"战争、泡沫、黄金：126年数据，回答你最关注的3个问题","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F52e41c10-f5e0-4c22-a04c-f1c75ae4b8b8.jpg","全球投资回报年鉴","\u003Cdiv>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">大家好，我是简七~\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">这段时间，市场很吵。枪炮声、龙虾潮、金价新高...每天都有人在讨论：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">基金要赎回吗？AI泡沫什么时候破？黄金还能追吗？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">每年这个时候，我都会认真读一份报告：瑞银出版的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">《全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">里头追踪了35个国家、126年的资产回报数据，是我见过最扎实的「市场体检报告」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">这也是我最想分享给你的做法：越是嘈杂的时候，越要去翻数据，尤其是那些足够长、足够宽的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">前几天新出炉的报告，正好把前面的三个问题都回答了。我们一个一个聊。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;\">\n  \u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fb1de91bb-e29d-40bc-b155-6ec66d13f4db.jpg\">\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin: 0px 16px;line-height: 1.5em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;\" textstyle=\"\">*报告链接（复制-搜一搜）：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin: 0px 16px;line-height: 1.5em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;\" textstyle=\"\">https:\u002F\u002Fi.jane7.com\u002Fs\u002FZDKJMMSDM664?ch\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;\" textstyle=\"\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#d83931;background-color:rgba(255, 246, 122, 0.8);\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 254, 213);color: rgb(255, 76, 0);\" textstyle=\"\">*风险提示：本文仅为分享，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，决策需谨慎~\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin: 16px 16px 0px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(222, 120, 2);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">01\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin: 0px 16px 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(222, 120, 2);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">打仗了，基金要不要赎回？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">先说结论：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">绝大多数时候，不要。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">年鉴做了一个回归分析：用126年的地缘政治威胁指数，去预测未来股市回报。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">结果是，无论看未来一个月还是一年，两者之间几乎没有关系。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;\">\n  \u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fe397c832-67b3-46e0-9671-103378a47463.jpg\">\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">也就是说，绝大多数地缘冲突，在126年的尺度上看，只是噪音。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin: 0px 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">确实有例外：两次世界大战和1973年石油危机，引发了126年里最惨烈的几次崩盘。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin: 0px 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin: 0px 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">但年鉴也指出，\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(221, 116, 0);font-weight: bold;\" textstyle=\"\">真正影响股价的重大事件，在历史上并不频繁。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">传奇投资人彼得·林奇说过一句话：\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: bold;\" textstyle=\"\">投资者因为预测回调、或者试图预防回调所亏掉的钱，远比回调本身带来的损失要多得多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">所以比起猜「这次会不会不一样」，有一件事更值得做：\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);font-weight: bold;\" textstyle=\"\">检查你的安全垫。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">2008年金融危机，美股用了4年才恢复到上一次高点。这4年里，真正受伤最深的，不是经历了下跌的人，而是在最低点被迫离场的人。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">所以我的做法是：永远让应急资金足够撑过一段漫长的低谷。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">这是我们在风浪中「睡得着、坐得住」的底气。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin: 16px 16px 0px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(222, 120, 2);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">02\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin: 0px 16px 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(222, 120, 2);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">AI会崩盘吗？一个125年前的故事\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">第二个问题：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">AI会不会像2000年的互联网一样，最后一地鸡毛？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">年鉴讲了一个让我很意外的故事。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">1900年，铁路占美国股市的63%，跟今天科技股的统治地位差不多。后来汽车、飞机陆续出现，铁路的市场份额一路跌到不足1%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;\">\n  \u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F63715980-273f-42ee-855c-cf646d0de123.jpg\">\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">但如果你在1900年买了铁路行业指数，一直拿到今天，它的回报\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">（年化12%）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">，竟然跑赢了取代它的公路运输\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">（年化8%）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">和航空运输\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">（年化7.3%）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cblockquote style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;border-left: 2px solid #bbbfc4;color:#646A73;margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\n  \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">1900年投资1美元到铁路，现在价值17.6万美元；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n  \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">相比之下，同样的1美元投资公路运输，价值为2.7万美元，航空运输为8000美元\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003C\u002Fblockquote>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">为什么一个夕阳产业，反而赚得更好？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">年鉴的解释是：铁路始终是运输重型货物\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">成本最低的方式\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">，行业不断整合提效，准入门槛高、网络效应强，无论是运河、公路还是航空，都没能真正取代它。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">这跟今天的科技行业其实很像：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">头部公司\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">的数据壁垒、算力投入、用户生态，同样不是轻易能被颠覆的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">说起来，科技行业也经历过「至暗时刻」。上世纪90年代，太多互联网公司缺乏可行的商业模式，泡沫破灭后纷纷倒闭。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">但从投资上看，哪怕你非常倒霉，在2000年泡沫最顶点买入科技指数，25年后依然能跑赢大盘\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">（同期标普500指数）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;\">\n  \u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F92937788-bf07-4e74-a401-1e06642913dc.jpg\">\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">事实上，多数人不会一次性全部买在高点，而是通过定投逐步买入。只要挺过低谷，回报依旧可观。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">年鉴作者蒂姆森教授说：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\" textstyle=\"\">即使有泡沫，长期来看仍然可以是好的投资\u003C\u002Fspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">对我们来说，启示是如果你持有的是沪深300、标普500这样的宽基指数，或者覆盖面广的科技行业基金，不必因为「AI是不是泡沫」而夜不能寐。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">只要你买的是整个时代的贝塔，时间最终会抹平波峰的溢价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin: 16px 16px 0px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(222, 120, 2);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">03\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin: 0px 16px 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(222, 120, 2);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">黄金涨疯了，现在买来得及吗？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">说完股票，最后聊一个比股票还火的投资品：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"background-color:rgba(254, 212, 164, 0.8);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">黄金\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">金价连创新高，年鉴也新增了黄金专题。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">先泼盆冷水：黄金不是好的通胀对冲工具。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">数据显示，1971年以来通胀超过3%的28年里，黄金有13年是亏钱的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">自1900年算起，黄金的实际年化回报\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">（扣除通胀率）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">只有1.3%，远不如股票的6-7%，甚至不如债券\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">（1.7%）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">但黄金有一个独特的本领：在股市最惨的时候\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\" textstyle=\"\">「逆风翻盘」\u003C\u002Fspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">年鉴统计了1971年以来的11次股市大跌，黄金在8次中上涨，另外3次跌幅也小于股市。平均下来，黄金在大跌中的表现比债券还好。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;\">\n  \u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F73679677-72ba-446e-87a1-b70861408a20.jpg\">\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">所以，年鉴建议咱们，别「囤积黄金」，而是把黄金当\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\" textstyle=\"\">再平衡工具\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。在很多经典的资产配置方案中，黄金的比例通常在5%-10%左右。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">市场好的时候，它涨幅一般没关系，暴风来的时候它帮你稳住，等风平浪静了，咱们可以通过再平衡，把涨多的部分换回跌多的资产。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cblockquote style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;border-left: 2px solid #bbbfc4;color:#646A73;margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\n  \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">举个例子——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n  \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">假设你\u003Ca class=\"normal_text_link mp_article_text_link\" data-linktype=\"2\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MjM5MzA3MjI2NQ==&mid=2650675041&idx=2&sn=73f7f6ea3aeda2b79651bb7c8989a8a9&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" linktype=\"text\" style=\"color: rgb(0, 82, 255);;color:#409eff\" target=\"_blank\" textvalue=\"\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 82, 255);\" textstyle=\"\">「金鹅池」\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fa>（长期不用的闲钱）的投资组合比例是：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">股票：债券：黄金：现金 = 3：5：1：1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n  \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">你有10万可投，黄金就买1万。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n  \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">如果明年，股票跌了、黄金涨了。比如股票从3万跌到2万，黄金从1万涨到2万，其他部分不变。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n  \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">那就\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">卖出1万黄金，买入1万股票\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">，让组合重新回到原始比例。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003C\u002Fblockquote>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">这就是再平衡的价值：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">把因为情绪的追涨杀跌\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">，变成了理性的「高位止盈、低位补仓」。跌得多了，它帮你补进去；涨得多了，它帮你落袋为安。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">让「低买高卖」这个理想状态，内化成一种可以自动运行的投资纪律。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin: 16px;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(222, 120, 2);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">04\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">最后，分享年鉴结尾的一句话：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"background-color:rgba(254, 212, 164, 0.8);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">历史，是在危险时期航行的指南针。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">126年的数据，穿越了两次世界大战、大萧条、石油危机、互联网泡沫、金融海啸……每一次，人们都觉得「这次不一样」。但每一次，做好准备的人，最终都拿到了属于他们的回报。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">战争、关税、泡沫，这些我们无法控制。但有\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">两件事\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">，今天就可以做——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">第一，检查应急资金\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">，确保手头有6个月生活费的现金。这笔钱买不来收益，但能让你在市场波动中，都不必被迫卖出任何一份资产；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">第二，检查持仓集中度\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">。如果几乎所有投资都在同一个市场、同一类资产，甚至同一只产品，可以考虑分散一些。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">宽基指数优于行业押注，行业基金优于单只个股，全球配置优于单一市场。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">说到底，投资中最大的风险，不是市场下跌，而是在下跌时被迫离场。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">在一切都不确定的时候，做这些检查、保持冷静，本身就需要勇气。但这份勇气，恰恰是长期回报的入场券。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan leaf=\"\">晚安，祝你睡个好觉。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003C\u002Fdiv>","","2026-03-10 20:48:00",100,0,"py自动生成","2026-03-10 20:50:38",117,false,18161,5,"1038002",6,[],[],[],[],[32],{"pageSize":4,"articleWikiId":33,"wikiName":34,"articleCode":35,"locationType":36,"sortNumber":37,"articleTitle":38,"introduction":39,"coverImage":40,"likeCount":18,"realSearch":22,"createTime":41,"seoUrl":42,"seoKeywords":43},97,"理财产品","JP2020061821353578870",2,20200618,"1700亿抗疫特别国债来了，普通个人也能买，抢吗？","抗疫特别国债的投资细节，终于落地啦！赶紧和大家聊一聊~","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F5028228b-0362-4027-bf4a-fe851d048900.png","2020-06-18 21:35:35","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jane7.com\u002Farticle-financing-JP2020061821353578870-97.html","债券投资,低风险投资,财经新闻"]