[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-JP2025060616521406424":3,"related-JP2025060616521406424":29},{"pageSize":4,"id":5,"productLine":6,"status":7,"articleCode":8,"articleType":9,"showStyle":7,"mediaType":10,"articleTitle":11,"coverImage":12,"listImage":13,"introduction":14,"description":15,"nonVipDescription":16,"postTime":17,"viewTime":17,"sortNumber":18,"isFree":19,"isShowList":7,"isRecommend":19,"linkType":7,"isOriginal":6,"hasMiniUrl":19,"hasAdvertising":19,"createBy":20,"updateBy":20,"createTime":21,"visitCount":19,"isLiked":19,"realSearch":22,"isRead":19,"productId":23,"isCollected":19,"collectCount":19,"vipExclusive":19,"allowComment":7,"style":24,"likeCount":19,"seoKeywords":16,"articleModuleVoList":25,"extendContentList":26,"noteCount":19,"categoryList":27,"dailyKeywordList":28},10,7109,"1",1,"JP2025060616521406424","1041018",3,"普通人如何应对经济周期？","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F3375725c-d389-414b-8026-187a459f2892.png","https:\u002F\u002Fjane7-prod.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\u002Fmanager\u002Farticle_default_img.png","等待关键时刻，做出好的决策。","\u003Cdiv>\n \u003Csection style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;visibility: visible;line-height: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n  \u003Cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(98, 90, 90);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">点击\u003C\u002Fspan>\n  \u003Cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"> “简七读财”\u003C\u002Fspan>\n  \u003Cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;color: rgb(98, 90, 90);visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">，发送消息“理财小工具”\u003C\u002Fspan>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Csection style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;visibility: visible;line-height: normal;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n  \u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 14px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(98, 90, 90);caret-color: rgb(98, 90, 90);visibility: visible;\">免费领取“\u003C\u002Fspan>\n  \u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 254, 213);visibility: visible;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(98, 90, 90);color: rgb(255, 76, 0);visibility: visible;\">40个赚钱工具资源包\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\n  \u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-size: 14px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(98, 90, 90);caret-color: rgb(98, 90, 90);visibility: visible;\">”\u003C\u002Fspan>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 0em;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F3fa6f09a-c788-4d94-b1e6-c8e14cd8fd4a.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 0em;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection>\n  \u003Cmpvoice class=\"js_editor_audio audio_iframe js_uneditable custom_select_card\" data-pluginname=\"insertaudio\" data-topic_id=\"\" data-topic_name=\"\" data-trans_state=\"1\" data-verify_state=\"3\" high_size=\"1801.24\" isaac2=\"1\" low_size=\"1241.97\" name=\"普通人如何应对经济周期？\" play_length=\"614000\" source_size=\"1228.8\" src=\"\u002Fcgi-bin\u002Freadtemplate?t=tmpl\u002Faudio_tmpl&name=%E6%99%AE%E9%80%9A%E4%BA%BA%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%BA%94%E5%AF%B9%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%EF%BC%9F&play_length=10:14\" voice_encode_fileid=\"MjM5MzA3MjI2NV8yNjUwNjY3MTQ3\">\u003C\u002Fmpvoice>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">在生活和投资中，我们常常希望能做个「先知」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">这礼拜银行理财成了个热门话题，不少朋友担忧，接下来还会不会跌，自己要不要卖。还有的朋友看着下跌的净值想，这是不是一个「抄底」的好机会，能不能买。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">工作中我们也希望能押中朝阳行业，比如早知道体制内这么香，10年前就该考试上岸。看互联网这么赚，恨自己为什么没有「弃文从码\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">」\u003C\u002Fspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">每逢重大选择，我们总想开启上帝视角，或者至少是聪明人视角，知道什么时间做什么事。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">今天介绍一位投资大师，\u003Cstrong>霍华德·马克斯\u003C\u002Fstrong>，就是这样一位聪明人。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">他是和巴菲特、索罗斯等齐名的投资大师，曾多次准确判断了资本市场的重要趋势变化，预警了好几场金融危机。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">他创立并管理的橡树资本，是全球顶尖资产管理公司。他不定期撰写的「投资备忘录」是华尔街人士的必读文件，连「股神」巴菲特都是他的铁粉。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">霍华德·马克斯把自己的50多年的投资实践经验写成了一本书叫《周期》，主要是通过了解一些事情的周期变化趋势，\u003Cstrong>帮助大家在一个高度不确定的世界里，做出更好的选择、提高胜算。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">今天我们一起来读读，霍华德·马克斯到底有什么特别的技巧，看透周期，应对周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align: center;margin: 16px 16px 0em;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Ff5a500ae-6f7a-4aba-a958-0d74a8502c0a.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Ch3 style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: center;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">01 认识周期\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">先说说什么是周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">《剑桥词典》上的说法是：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">「一组事件按照一个特定的顺序发生，一个接着一个，而且这种顺序经常重复」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">比方说四季变换，春夏秋冬每年重复发生，这就是典型的周期。而在宏观经济中，会有繁荣、萧条、衰退、复苏四个阶段，这一组事件循环，反复地发生，也是周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">周期为什么会出现呢？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">你可能听过这样一个比喻，在市场中，价值和价格就像人和狗的关系。一个人牵着狗溜达，狗一会跑到前面，一会跑到后面，一会又回到主人身边。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">市场之所以出现周期，也是类似的原理。让周期来回波动的能量有两种：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>自然规律和人类行为\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">先看自然规律：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">任何事都有一个中间的平衡点，周期会围绕这个中心点波动。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">比如一个国家的GDP，过去几十年平均增长率为2%。但肯定是有些年增长快一些，有些年增长慢一些，有些年甚至是负增长。在经济生活中，不管是GDP增长速度，还是企业盈利水平，又或者是股市估值水平，都有一个长期趋势、平均值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">我们对市场周期印象最深刻的，往往是泡沫时期，大家都特别能赚钱；泡沫破灭、市场崩盘以后，巨额财富一夜蒸发。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">以美国股市为例，2000年互联网泡沫破灭，股市大跌，之后慢慢恢复元气又迎来牛市，2008年又因为次贷危机爆发，再次发生股灾。每一次都是大涨大跌，有人积累了大量财富，也有人一夜破产。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">你可能要问，市场为什么不能平稳发展，而总是走极端呢？因为，引发周期的动能，除了均值回归的自然规律，还有另一种，就是人类的情绪和行为。这一点等会具体聊到。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"margin: 16px 16px 0em;padding: 0px;text-align: center;\">\n  \u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F6ec68914-9ba6-4b42-aa8e-e5f3879efe09.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fstrong>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Ch3 style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: center;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">02 常见的周期有哪些？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">那么，常见的周期有哪些？如果我们能准确识别，是不是就可以提高自己的决策胜算？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">作者举了几个例子，比如，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>信贷周期\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">日常生活中，我们经常接触到信贷。通过信用卡，我们可以用下个月的工资付这个月的账单，通过房贷可以提前几十年住上新房。企业有更多的信贷，就能扩大经营，来赚更多的钱。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">但借来的钱，毕竟不是自己的钱。信贷要交利息，要按期还款，还完之后还要再借，利息还有可能变动。对于我们来说，首付比例、银行利率的变化，就意味着可能买得起或者买不起房。而对于企业来说，信贷的松紧程度，意味着下一步经营会受到多大限制。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">信贷对经济有放大效应。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">全国GDP年度增幅波动一两个百分点，看上去并不大，但是民间就会有大量企业经营困难的声音。企业盈利波动幅度是GDP波动幅度的两三倍，甚至更大。主要原因是，\u003Cstrong>很多企业都是借钱经营的，财务杠杆放大了企业的盈利和亏损，也放大了经济的波动。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">所以，信贷周期的运转，常常会放大国民经济和企业盈利的周期变化，也会严重影响投资者的信心，牵一发而动全身，作者认为，这是市场中最重要的周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">另一个周期，就是我们之前刚刚提到的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>情绪周期\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">。大众情绪也跟钟摆一样，在贪婪和恐惧、乐观和悲观之间，来回摆动，形成周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">乐观的时候，投资者会愿意承担更多风险，因为相信会有更多收益；悲观的时候，可能一点风险也不想承担。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">但机会往往出现在市场极度悲观的时候。次贷危机中，一些并未受到实质性影响的投资品也出现了大跌。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">霍华德·马克斯当时计算出一个结果，现在投入，年化收益率可以轻松达到20%以上。他去投资者那里募集资金，虽然已经一五一十把推算结果告诉了对方，对方仍然很怀疑，连问了6个「如果事情变得更糟会怎样」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">霍华德·马克斯的回答是，最坏的情况，就是美国经济重回1929年大萧条，这笔投资依然能做到不亏钱。可对方仍然不敢下注。最后，还是没能劝服对方，只好自掏腰包，把钱注入了这个基金，而这成了他一生中最赚钱的一笔交易。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">说到这里，大家可能感觉似曾相识了。我们受情绪周期影响，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>可能会在牛市顶峰担心错过机会，急匆匆买入，付出过高的代价；在熊市底部又因为害怕亏钱，恐慌性地卖出优质的资产。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">而真正的高手，则能抵抗外部的影响，保持情绪上的平衡，反其道而行之。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">第三个作者提到的重要周期是，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>成功周期\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">。他认为，一个人或一种策略的成功和失败也是有周期的。在这里就不展开了，有兴趣的朋友可以去翻书找答案。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"text-align: center;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F96606fb3-5133-49f8-adc5-a0f35f74c726.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Ch3 style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;font-size: 17px;white-space: normal;clear: both;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">03 应对周期\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">前面讲了认识周期的规律，分析了常见的重要周期，最终的目的都是为了应对周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">霍华德·马克斯提出了一些应对周期的办法，来给大家整理了两个要点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">第一个是：不预测未来，而是判断当下。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">在一开始，我就介绍过，作者曾多次判断准确周期的极端位置，在几次金融危机中，不仅毫发无损，还取得了特别高的收益。你可能会觉得，他是个预测高手。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">实际上，马克斯非常反对预测未来。\u003Cstrong>在他看来，未来也是难以预测的，预测未来毫无意义。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">他做的事情是，判断当前周期的位置，然后根据当前位置做出最优的投资决策，等待未来市场的发展有利于自己。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">但是判断周期也是有局限性的。他每次做出的判断，从来都不会认为自己能百分之百正确，甚至80%的正确性也做不到。这可不是谦虚，而是他的真诚想法。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">我们发现，\u003Cstrong>在投资中，即使你能每次都看对，也不代表你每次都能赚大钱。\u003C\u002Fstrong>决定结果的，不仅有技能，还有运气的成分。这就像打牌，不管是牌技好，还是抓一手好牌，都可能让你赢。但总的来说，运气是一时的，技能决定了你投资的长期收益。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">投资者要追求的，绝不是百发百中，而是正确的时候多赚，错误的时候少亏；看对的资产买得多，看错的资产买得少。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">因此，作者强调，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>作为投资者，不要捡了芝麻忘了西瓜，不要过于关注每天市场的涨跌，而要关注一生一次或几次的周期极端。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">那怎么判断周期的极端位置呢？这就是应对周期的第二个要点：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\">\u003Cstrong>定量判断，定性观察。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">定量，就是用一定的\u003Cstrong>测量标准\u003C\u002Fstrong>去判断。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">拿股市来说，前段时间，市场一直下跌，大家都很悲观，卖出的不在少数。其实，如果能用一些估值指标跟历史平均值做比较，起码能心里有个数。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">比如常见的市盈率指标，代表一家上市公司几年的利润能回本。如果大众很乐观，整个市场的市盈率就会特别高；如果很悲观，市盈率就会很低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">现在的大盘市盈率大约是15倍，比十年内90%的时间都要「便宜」，和14年、18年的底部位置差不多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"text-align: center;margin: 16px 16px 0px;\">\n  \u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Faa68b576-f2be-4575-83bc-390b067abd9d.jpg\">\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Csection style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: center;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n  \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">图源：理杏仁\u003C\u002Fspan>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">再来，你或许想知道现在股票、债券都跌了，那么该买哪类资产更好，不妨来看看\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Ca data-itemshowtype=\"0\" data-linktype=\"2\" href=\"http:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MjM5MzA3MjI2NQ==&mid=2650663394&idx=1&sn=8f52ce2e04dfe05d7f46da9d1f80c75f&chksm=be95dc0489e25512cadb917f18a833fc55232158fdb766f578d6c3e2132f8ce27be5ff399c52&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" imgdata=\"null\" imgurl=\"\" linktype=\"text\" tab=\"innerlink\" target=\"_blank\" textvalue=\"「格雷厄姆」指数\" style=\"color:#409eff\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);\">「格雷厄姆」指数\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;\">格雷厄姆指数=盈利收益率\u002F债券收益率\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">它衡量的是股票和债券之间的\u003Cstrong>「性价比」\u003C\u002Fstrong>——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">一般来说，比值大于2，意味着可以买入股票；比值在1-2之间，意味着可以持有股票和债券；比值小于1意味着买入债券更划算。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">格雷厄姆指数现在是2.12，显示股票的投资价值更高一些。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align: center;margin: 16px 16px 0px;\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fc5a9ccd4-f1bc-489f-8ab7-ccdb11afb513.jpg\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: justify;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: center;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n  \u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">图源：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;text-align: center;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">理杏仁\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">通过定量指标辅助判断，你在做投资决策时，心中便有了底气。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">再看定性\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">。就是用直观感觉来观察，看周围发生的事情，看大家都在做什么。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">就像判断有没有进入冬天，气象学里入冬的标准是连续5天全天平均气温低于10℃，但我们往往不是靠温度去判断，而是感觉冷了，就要加衣服。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">而周期到达极端位置的时候，会出现一些信号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">比如，熊市中，所有人都在恐慌抛售，这时候，那些总是跟大众唱反调的人也投降了，那么资产价格也差不多见底了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">另一个重要信号就是，人群中出现了一句魔咒一样的话，五个字，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>「这次不一样」\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">。这五个字被称为是投资中最危险的五个字，在周期极端位置，人群中往往会弥漫这种言论。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">因为在极端情绪下，人很容易找到理由，认为「这次不一样」，对重要市场指标的异常视而不见，幻想周期已经消失，树能长到天上。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">好了，这本书的重点就讲到这里。我们今天简单认识了常见的周期，并了解了一些应对的办法。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169);color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">希望大家都能培养良好的「周期感」，养成聪明人思维，尽量用理性来看待市场的波动，在关键时刻，做出更好的决策。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px;padding: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;display: block;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 17px;text-align: justify;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);margin: 0px;padding: 0px;\">周末愉快哦\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">🌹\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0pt 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-size: 11pt;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(73, 73, 73);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003C\u002Fdiv>","","2022-11-18 22:41:00",100,0,"renqiang@jane7.com","2025-06-06 16:52:14",false,17171,"1038002",[],[],[],[],[30,42],{"pageSize":4,"articleWikiId":31,"wikiName":32,"articleCode":33,"locationType":34,"sortNumber":35,"articleTitle":36,"introduction":37,"coverImage":38,"likeCount":19,"realSearch":22,"createTime":39,"seoUrl":40,"seoKeywords":41},97,"理财产品","JP2020061821353578870",2,20200618,"1700亿抗疫特别国债来了，普通个人也能买，抢吗？","抗疫特别国债的投资细节，终于落地啦！赶紧和大家聊一聊~","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F5028228b-0362-4027-bf4a-fe851d048900.png","2020-06-18 21:35:35","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jane7.com\u002Farticle-financing-JP2020061821353578870-97.html","债券投资,低风险投资,财经新闻",{"pageSize":4,"articleWikiId":43,"wikiName":44,"articleCode":45,"locationType":34,"sortNumber":46,"articleTitle":47,"introduction":48,"coverImage":49,"likeCount":50,"realSearch":22,"createTime":51,"seoUrl":52,"seoKeywords":53},94,"财商入门","JP2020122118042014618",20201221,"这份「财务自由」书单，少看1本都遗憾","一份「财商逆袭」的终极书单","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F193cd0e8-835a-4dd8-b82b-19053f0561e9.png",157,"2020-12-21 18:04:20","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.jane7.com\u002Farticle-financing-JP2020122118042014618-94.html","财商,书单,财务自由"]