[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-JP2025052110550305335":3,"related-JP2025052110550305335":33},{"pageSize":4,"id":5,"productLine":6,"status":7,"articleCode":8,"articleType":9,"showStyle":7,"mediaType":10,"fileInputUrl":11,"articleTitle":12,"coverImage":13,"listImage":14,"introduction":15,"description":16,"nonVipDescription":17,"postTime":18,"viewTime":19,"sortNumber":20,"isFree":21,"isShowList":7,"isRecommend":21,"linkType":7,"isOriginal":6,"hasMiniUrl":21,"miniUrl":11,"miniScheme":11,"miniImage":11,"itemTag":11,"createBy":22,"updateBy":22,"createTime":23,"visitCount":24,"isLiked":21,"realSearch":25,"isRead":21,"productId":26,"isCollected":21,"collectCount":27,"vipExclusive":21,"allowComment":7,"style":28,"likeCount":7,"duration":21,"playStyle":7,"seoKeywords":11,"articleModuleVoList":29,"extendContentList":30,"noteCount":7,"categoryList":31,"dailyKeywordList":32},10,6918,"1",1,"JP2025052110550305335","1041018",3,"","120年数据揭秘：长期投资到底靠不靠谱？","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F3375725c-d389-414b-8026-187a459f2892.png","https:\u002F\u002Fjane7-prod.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\u002Fmanager\u002Farticle_default_img.png","世界读书日，聊聊赚钱「密码」","\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">大家好~\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">今年的世界读书日，我们从一个热门话题开始聊：\u003Cstrong>长期投资，靠不靠谱？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">很多朋友读理财书，会觉得很有道理——「攒钱、定投、长期持有」，但真正上场操作，问题立马来了：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">理财书大多来自海外，主角往往是一路向上的美股，咱们手里的A股却常常——涨一阵、跌一阵，最后好像又回到了起点。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">于是开始怀疑：\u003Cstrong>长期投资，是美国的幸存者偏差吗？其他国家适用吗？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">我也有这个疑问，翻来覆去找到了一本「理财权威教材」：\u003Cspan style=\"background-color:rgba(254, 212, 164, 0.8);\">\u003Cstrong>《全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">报告是《投资收益百年史》一书的延续，书中的数据只涵盖到2002年。此后，瑞银证券与两位教授联合，每年更新，拓展到\u003Cstrong>35个国家、120多年大类资产数据\u003C\u002Fstrong>的统计，内容相当硬核。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">最近，2025年鉴刚刚发布，又有了一些新结论。今天，我就来带大家看看，全球市场的数据怎么说——\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 254, 213);color: rgb(255, 41, 65);\">*风险提示：本文提到的基金\u002F股票仅供参考，不作为投资建议，投资有风险，决策需谨慎，请把决策权牢牢握在自己手中~\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F227d809b-1793-4900-abb5-67ef77582d9c.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>01 股市长期跑赢\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">年鉴统计了从\u003Cstrong>1900年到2024年\u003C\u002Fstrong>、有连续投资历史的市场数据，发现\u003Cstrong>扣除通胀率\u003C\u002Fstrong>之后：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cblockquote style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;border-left: 2px solid #bbbfc4;color:#646A73;margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\n \u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cstrong>全球股票的实际年化回报率为5.2%，债券为1.7%，现金（短期国库券）为0.5%。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">这意味着，如果你把钱放在股票里，坚持几十年，收益远高于债券或存款。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">再来看不同股市的表现*，\u003Cstrong>澳大利亚、美国的回报，跑赢全球。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">*2025年鉴没有具体国家数据，这里引用2023年鉴内容\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fd961286f-fba5-4a11-8c8d-c7a51ea98436.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">这背后，有2个\u003Cstrong>「财富密码」\u003C\u002Fstrong>：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cstrong>一是家里有矿。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>澳洲拥有全球最丰富的铁矿资源，资源公司不仅赚钱，还特别爱分红，股息率长期维持在4%-6%，这让复利的雪球越滚越大。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cstrong>二是地理红利。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>美国、加拿大等地，远离两次世界大战的「震中」，避免了很多毁灭性风险，经济积累更加稳定。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">反之，那些被战争重创的国家，如奥地利、意大利、葡萄牙，大量财富灰飞烟灭。（和平是最大的红利啊🤔）\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F3f353d6c-a7c7-4abf-bd99-5860c3b54ca8.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>02 新兴市场：高增长≠高回报\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">收益图里，还有一个扎心的大数据：\u003Cstrong>发达市场回报，好于GDP高速增长的新兴市场。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">为什么GDP增速，无法转化成到手的收益呢？\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">一方面，新兴市场普遍存在\u003Cstrong>融资成本高\u003C\u002Fstrong>的问题——企业赚的钱，先还了债权人，留给股东的并不多。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">再加上\u003Cstrong>汇率\u003C\u002Fstrong>这道「隐形税」，很多新兴市场以出口为主，压低汇率能提高出口竞争力，但也会折损投资回报。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">比如，印度股市过去十年以本币计价涨了三倍，看起来非常亮眼；但同期印度卢比对美元贬值约30%，\u003Cstrong>美元计价的印度基金就没那么香了\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F0e9468fa-d481-4272-8680-be52ce58f04b.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;font-size: 14px;\">图源：WIND、雪球\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">另一方面，还有一个更现实的难题——\u003Cstrong>进场时点\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">新兴市场波动率高，投资者容易在「人声鼎沸」的高点冲进去，一旦套牢就是多年站岗\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">（比如2007年的A股）\u003C\u002Fspan>。原本是冲着高回报，最后只求「回本就好」。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fcb695644-9a62-4996-bd19-5003d21add01.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>03 债券，避险利器\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">从长期来看，债券的实际年化回报只有2%，不算高。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">但某些特殊时期，它却是「香饽饽」——\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">报告统计，在\u003Cstrong>通货紧缩最严重的年份\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">（通胀率-38%）\u003C\u002Fspan>：债券年化实际收益高达18.5%，好于股票（11.7%）。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F8768c07e-f06d-4ab6-9cf2-e894251e0961.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2025年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">一来，债券价格与利率负相关，国家为了刺激经济，会降低利率，鼓励借贷。\u003Cstrong>利率下降，债券价格上升\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">二来，通货紧缩，意味着未来的物价走低，手上现金的购买力变强。能提供稳定现金流的债券，自然成了「避风港」。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">但除了严重的通缩期，股票几乎都跑赢债券。所以，债券的角色不是「主要增值工具」，而是\u003Cstrong>资产配置中的防御工兵\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F677bdb38-39b7-4e04-a0ee-06aedb8c8126.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>04 全球市场变迁\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;\">报告中有一张图，展示了12个主要国家股市市值，在过去100多年的变迁，读完让人感慨万千：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cblockquote style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;border-left: 2px solid #bbbfc4;color:#646A73;margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\n \u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;font-size: 14px;\">1899年，全球霸主是\u003Cstrong>英国\u003C\u002Fstrong>，\u003Cstrong>市值占全球四分之一\u003C\u002Fstrong>；\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;font-size: 14px;\">随后，美国借助二次工业革命崛起，坐稳第一；\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;font-size: 14px;\">到90年代，\u003Cstrong>日本一度超越美国\u003C\u002Fstrong>；\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;font-size: 14px;\">再后来，日本泡沫破灭，美国重回统治地位，又赶上互联网浪潮；\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;font-size: 14px;\">到了2024年，\u003Cstrong>美国\u003C\u002Fstrong>的全球市值占比已翻了四倍，\u003Cstrong>达到60%\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F9d3983fe-68ff-44a0-84c6-435fbe92dc5b.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2024年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">这段历史告诉我们一件事：\u003Cstrong>全球市值是动态变化的，没有永远的第一，也没有永远的安全区。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">还有更极端的例子：1900年，\u003Cstrong>奥匈帝国\u003C\u002Fstrong>在全球资本市场的占比为5%；18年后，因为战败而彻底解体。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">假如那时你只投本国股票——即使是「奥匈版巴菲特」，恐怕也英雄无用武之地。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">事实上，奥匈不仅是股市表现最差的国家之一，也是债券回报倒数第二的市场。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F5e5a37fe-bdbd-4023-942d-b0053f3075b5.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>05 启示1：配置要分散\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">所以，报告建议：\u003Cstrong>与其押注本国市场，不如做好全球配置。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">数据显示，多数国家的「全球投资」夏普比率，普遍高于「本国All in」。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fa693f615-f462-41c3-800b-0f51453684e9.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2025年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">对咱们来说，可以参考\u003Cstrong>MSCI全球指数*\u003C\u002Fstrong>来做资产配置。这个指数覆盖了全球主要经济体的大中型企业，被视为全球经济的一面镜子\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-weight: normal;\">*\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-weight: normal;\">https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ishares.com\u002Fus\u002Fproducts\u002F239600\u002Fishares-msci-acwi-etf\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">目前，这个指数里：\u003Cstrong>美国公司占比六成，\u003C\u002Fstrong>日本、英国紧随其后，但占比都不到5%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F79f2d0b3-f187-4402-bc76-7ea2209aab8e.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;font-size: 14px;\">图源：ACWI指数基金页面\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">你可以按这个比例分散配置。如果嫌麻烦，只买一个成熟市场\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">（比如美股）\u003C\u002Fspan>作为代表，也不失为一个简化版的全球投资策略。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;\">*拓展阅读：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Ca style=\"color: rgb(0, 82, 255);;color:#409eff\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MjM5MzA3MjI2NQ==&mid=2650673724&idx=2&sn=6ee939ea23f00a558a93f5e64012e8f1&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(0, 82, 255);\">5分钟看懂极简投资\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F6fdc6bd5-aaa3-434f-91f8-5f865c277413.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>06 启示2：耐心很重要\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">股票投资长期看有回报，但波动不小，尤其是在遭遇大跌后的「水下期」，\u003Cstrong>恢复期常常比想象中更漫长\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">比如，1929年大萧条后，美股花了15年半才回本；2008年金融危机后，也用了整整4年才爬出来。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F3ed76232-e209-477c-9a0c-7a03bcb2a0c1.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2025年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">这正是长期投资最难的地方：\u003Cstrong>不仅是心理要扛得住，生活的现金流也得撑得住。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">资产配置的意义就在这里——\u003Cstrong>适当增加债券比例\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color:#646a73;\">（如30%-70%）\u003C\u002Fspan>，用稳健收益来缓冲下跌，让你有底气熬过市场的低潮。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Csection>\n \u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fa15661e4-30dc-40a2-a978-b4df06aee655.jpg\">\n\u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;line-height: 2em;text-align: center;color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>07\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">报告里有句话特别打动我：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cblockquote style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;border-left: 2px solid #bbbfc4;color:#646A73;margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\n \u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;font-size: 14px;\">最强大的力量，不是预测未来，而是记录过去。这本身就很有价值——如果不这样做，我们就无法看清将来可能发生什么，也无法真正理解已经发生的一切。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">金融市场里，没有所谓的「正常」，只有持续的变化。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">如果你问「我们快到了吗？」那其实是问错了——市场的旅程没有终点，重要的不是到达，而是如何在变化中稳稳走下去。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">我想，这也是读书的意义。它不能替你走路，但能告诉你前人怎么走过。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">我们无法左右未来，比如关税争端、地缘冲突，但可以做的是：\u003Cspan style=\"background-color:rgba(254, 212, 164, 0.8);\">\u003Cstrong>做好分散、合理配置，用理性穿越不确定性。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">相信历史，相信世界终将变好，也相信——\u003Cstrong>愿意承担风险的人，终会拿到属于他们的回报。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">拓展阅读（复制-搜一搜）：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">《2025年鉴》：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">https:\u002F\u002Fshorturl.at\u002FpyHTg\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">《2024年鉴》：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">https:\u002F\u002Fshorturl.at\u002FFY9hB\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">《2023年鉴》：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">https:\u002F\u002Fshorturl.at\u002Fp7KV3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;line-height: 2em;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);visibility: visible;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp style=\"display: none;\">\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">大家好~\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">今年的世界读书日，我们从一个热门话题开始聊：\u003Cstrong>长期投资，靠不靠谱？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">很多朋友读理财书，会觉得很有道理——「攒钱、定投、长期持有」，但真正上场操作，问题立马来了：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">理财书大多来自海外，主角往往是一路向上的美股，咱们手里的A股却常常——涨一阵、跌一阵，最后好像又回到了起点。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">于是开始怀疑：\u003Cstrong>长期投资，是美国的幸存者偏差吗？其他国家适用吗？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">我也有这个疑问，翻来覆去找到了一本「理财权威教材」：\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgba(254, 212, 164, 0.8);\">\u003Cstrong>《全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">报告是《投资收益百年史》一书的延续，书中的数据只涵盖到2002年。此后，瑞银证券与两位教授联合，每年更新，拓展到\u003Cstrong>35个国家、120多年大类资产数据\u003C\u002Fstrong>的统计，内容相当硬核。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">最近，2025年鉴刚刚发布，又有了一些新结论。今天，我就来带大家看看，全球市场的数据怎么说——\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 1.5em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; background-color: rgb(255, 254, 213); color: rgb(255, 41, 65);\">*风险提示：本文提到的基金\u002F股票仅供参考，不作为投资建议，投资有风险，决策需谨慎，请把决策权牢牢握在自己手中~\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEia5ic8QHCicVaPxAQIwWMD3dGJrGvaTBfDNdc6kEpLSpibYL5Ar9ibyDWVx6etCcbiaYicMiabUNJa5dCXA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; text-align: center; color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>01 股市长期跑赢\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">年鉴统计了从\u003Cstrong>1900年到2024年\u003C\u002Fstrong>、有连续投资历史的市场数据，发现\u003Cstrong>扣除通胀率\u003C\u002Fstrong>之后：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cblockquote style=\"text-wrap-mode: wrap; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; line-height: 2em; border-left: 2px solid rgb(187, 191, 196); color: rgb(100, 106, 115); margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cstrong>全球股票的实际年化回报率为5.2%，债券为1.7%，现金（短期国库券）为0.5%。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">这意味着，如果你把钱放在股票里，坚持几十年，收益远高于债券或存款。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">再来看不同股市的表现*，\u003Cstrong>澳大利亚、美国的回报，跑赢全球。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">*2025年鉴没有具体国家数据，这里引用2023年鉴内容\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEbUHaQ67tXuV7iaApSe6koNDNgsr8rZRicYq1PQsNRAIYj8WfSRyF76lkRS07UpPib4DmXtxGCqGnuw\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">这背后，有2个\u003Cstrong>「财富密码」\u003C\u002Fstrong>：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cstrong>一是家里有矿。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>澳洲拥有全球最丰富的铁矿资源，资源公司不仅赚钱，还特别爱分红，股息率长期维持在4%-6%，这让复利的雪球越滚越大。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cstrong>二是地理红利。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>美国、加拿大等地，远离两次世界大战的「震中」，避免了很多毁灭性风险，经济积累更加稳定。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">反之，那些被战争重创的国家，如奥地利、意大利、葡萄牙，大量财富灰飞烟灭。（和平是最大的红利啊🤔）\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEia5ic8QHCicVaPxAQIwWMD3dGJrGvaTBfDNdc6kEpLSpibYL5Ar9ibyDWVx6etCcbiaYicMiabUNJa5dCXA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; text-align: center; color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>02 新兴市场：高增长≠高回报\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">收益图里，还有一个扎心的大数据：\u003Cstrong>发达市场回报，好于GDP高速增长的新兴市场。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">为什么GDP增速，无法转化成到手的收益呢？\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">一方面，新兴市场普遍存在\u003Cstrong>融资成本高\u003C\u002Fstrong>的问题——企业赚的钱，先还了债权人，留给股东的并不多。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">再加上\u003Cstrong>汇率\u003C\u002Fstrong>这道「隐形税」，很多新兴市场以出口为主，压低汇率能提高出口竞争力，但也会折损投资回报。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">比如，印度股市过去十年以本币计价涨了三倍，看起来非常亮眼；但同期印度卢比对美元贬值约30%，\u003Cstrong>美元计价的印度基金就没那么香了\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEbUHaQ67tXuV7iaApSe6koNQm7Jr1GA206GKiaFibdevNEnGeYZ7wbBMb4ZbF4gSYNb6Xt2iacZwuf5A\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; text-align: center; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115); font-size: 14px;\">图源：WIND、雪球\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">另一方面，还有一个更现实的难题——\u003Cstrong>进场时点\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">新兴市场波动率高，投资者容易在「人声鼎沸」的高点冲进去，一旦套牢就是多年站岗\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">（比如2007年的A股）\u003C\u002Fspan>。原本是冲着高回报，最后只求「回本就好」。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEia5ic8QHCicVaPxAQIwWMD3dGJrGvaTBfDNdc6kEpLSpibYL5Ar9ibyDWVx6etCcbiaYicMiabUNJa5dCXA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; text-align: center; color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>03 债券，避险利器\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">从长期来看，债券的实际年化回报只有2%，不算高。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">但某些特殊时期，它却是「香饽饽」——\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">报告统计，在\u003Cstrong>通货紧缩最严重的年份\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">（通胀率-38%）\u003C\u002Fspan>：债券年化实际收益高达18.5%，好于股票（11.7%）。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEbUHaQ67tXuV7iaApSe6koNwGFicFiaib1fLO0BAllibIJicJBwibFHdAyWMKwMZn9FgoHiclibLic4UrYKodA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; text-align: center; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115); font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2025年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">一来，债券价格与利率负相关，国家为了刺激经济，会降低利率，鼓励借贷。\u003Cstrong>利率下降，债券价格上升\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">二来，通货紧缩，意味着未来的物价走低，手上现金的购买力变强。能提供稳定现金流的债券，自然成了「避风港」。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">但除了严重的通缩期，股票几乎都跑赢债券。所以，债券的角色不是「主要增值工具」，而是\u003Cstrong>资产配置中的防御工兵\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEia5ic8QHCicVaPxAQIwWMD3dGJrGvaTBfDNdc6kEpLSpibYL5Ar9ibyDWVx6etCcbiaYicMiabUNJa5dCXA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; text-align: center; color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>04 全球市场变迁\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">报告中有一张图，展示了12个主要国家股市市值，在过去100多年的变迁，读完让人感慨万千：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cblockquote style=\"text-wrap-mode: wrap; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; line-height: 2em; border-left: 2px solid rgb(187, 191, 196); color: rgb(100, 106, 115); margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; font-size: 14px;\">1899年，全球霸主是\u003Cstrong>英国\u003C\u002Fstrong>，\u003Cstrong>市值占全球四分之一\u003C\u002Fstrong>；\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; font-size: 14px;\">随后，美国借助二次工业革命崛起，坐稳第一；\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; font-size: 14px;\">到90年代，\u003Cstrong>日本一度超越美国\u003C\u002Fstrong>；\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; font-size: 14px;\">再后来，日本泡沫破灭，美国重回统治地位，又赶上互联网浪潮；\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; font-size: 14px;\">到了2024年，\u003Cstrong>美国\u003C\u002Fstrong>的全球市值占比已翻了四倍，\u003Cstrong>达到60%\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEbUHaQ67tXuV7iaApSe6koNvTFLX7AV3sKv6oTIxM4REbSyk90ZTqqDq9ZdRNs9yL6vucTMmmrchQ\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; text-align: center; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115); font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2024年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">这段历史告诉我们一件事：\u003Cstrong>全球市值是动态变化的，没有永远的第一，也没有永远的安全区。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">还有更极端的例子：1900年，\u003Cstrong>奥匈帝国\u003C\u002Fstrong>在全球资本市场的占比为5%；18年后，因为战败而彻底解体。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">假如那时你只投本国股票——即使是「奥匈版巴菲特」，恐怕也英雄无用武之地。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">事实上，奥匈不仅是股市表现最差的国家之一，也是债券回报倒数第二的市场。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEia5ic8QHCicVaPxAQIwWMD3dGJrGvaTBfDNdc6kEpLSpibYL5Ar9ibyDWVx6etCcbiaYicMiabUNJa5dCXA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; text-align: center; color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>05 启示1：配置要分散\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">所以，报告建议：\u003Cstrong>与其押注本国市场，不如做好全球配置。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">数据显示，多数国家的「全球投资」夏普比率，普遍高于「本国All in」。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEbUHaQ67tXuV7iaApSe6koNFF2CUgCfetlSNuTQYVwMGU5HSxRA4ibz7GVzJZeL2E6z29YdicibC61FA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; text-align: center; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115); font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2025年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">对咱们来说，可以参考\u003Cstrong>MSCI全球指数*\u003C\u002Fstrong>来做资产配置。这个指数覆盖了全球主要经济体的大中型企业，被视为全球经济的一面镜子\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">*\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-weight: normal;\">https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ishares.com\u002Fus\u002Fproducts\u002F239600\u002Fishares-msci-acwi-etf\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">目前，这个指数里：\u003Cstrong>美国公司占比六成，\u003C\u002Fstrong>日本、英国紧随其后，但占比都不到5%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEbUHaQ67tXuV7iaApSe6koNNBKh0a5abg7q2kZc7PZY8RyIM88EHDu2mP4R5N4Zibe5KkmPtgW3uOg\u002F640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; text-align: center; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115); font-size: 14px;\">图源：ACWI指数基金页面\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">你可以按这个比例分散配置。如果嫌麻烦，只买一个成熟市场\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">（比如美股）\u003C\u002Fspan>作为代表，也不失为一个简化版的全球投资策略。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;\">*拓展阅读：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MjM5MzA3MjI2NQ==&mid=2650673724&idx=2&sn=6ee939ea23f00a558a93f5e64012e8f1&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"color: rgb(0, 82, 255);\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px;\">5分钟看懂极简投资\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEia5ic8QHCicVaPxAQIwWMD3dGJrGvaTBfDNdc6kEpLSpibYL5Ar9ibyDWVx6etCcbiaYicMiabUNJa5dCXA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; text-align: center; color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>06 启示2：耐心很重要\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">股票投资长期看有回报，但波动不小，尤其是在遭遇大跌后的「水下期」，\u003Cstrong>恢复期常常比想象中更漫长\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">比如，1929年大萧条后，美股花了15年半才回本；2008年金融危机后，也用了整整4年才爬出来。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEbUHaQ67tXuV7iaApSe6koNfKqvWdQickooT8tuG33GiagX88AClNRxgdmsib71mUrMP3Z4fWK2j9NbQ\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; text-align: center; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115); font-size: 14px;\">图源：《2025年全球投资回报年鉴》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">这正是长期投资最难的地方：\u003Cstrong>不仅是心理要扛得住，生活的现金流也得撑得住。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">资产配置的意义就在这里——\u003Cstrong>适当增加债券比例\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"color: rgb(100, 106, 115);\">（如30%-70%）\u003C\u002Fspan>，用稳健收益来缓冲下跌，让你有底气熬过市场的低潮。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cimg alt=\"图片\" class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLEia5ic8QHCicVaPxAQIwWMD3dGJrGvaTBfDNdc6kEpLSpibYL5Ar9ibyDWVx6etCcbiaYicMiabUNJa5dCXA\u002F640?from=appmsg\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; text-align: center; color: rgb(214, 168, 65);\">\u003Cstrong>07\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">报告里有句话特别打动我：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cblockquote style=\"text-wrap-mode: wrap; margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; line-height: 2em; border-left: 2px solid rgb(187, 191, 196); color: rgb(100, 106, 115); margin-inline-start: 16px;\">\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible; font-size: 14px;\">最强大的力量，不是预测未来，而是记录过去。这本身就很有价值——如果不这样做，我们就无法看清将来可能发生什么，也无法真正理解已经发生的一切。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">金融市场里，没有所谓的「正常」，只有持续的变化。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">如果你问「我们快到了吗？」那其实是问错了——市场的旅程没有终点，重要的不是到达，而是如何在变化中稳稳走下去。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">我想，这也是读书的意义。它不能替你走路，但能告诉你前人怎么走过。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">我们无法左右未来，比如关税争端、地缘冲突，但可以做的是：\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: rgba(254, 212, 164, 0.8);\">\u003Cstrong>做好分散、合理配置，用理性穿越不确定性。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">相信历史，相信世界终将变好，也相信——\u003Cstrong>愿意承担风险的人，终会拿到属于他们的回报。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">拓展阅读（复制-搜一搜）：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">《2025年鉴》：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">https:\u002F\u002Fshorturl.at\u002FpyHTg\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">《2024年鉴》：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">https:\u002F\u002Fshorturl.at\u002FFY9hB\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">《2023年鉴》：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 14px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">https:\u002F\u002Fshorturl.at\u002Fp7KV3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-wrap-mode: wrap; line-height: 2em; font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); visibility: visible;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>","2025-05-22 06:25:00","2025-05-21 10:54:58",100,0,"liuweixin@jane7.com","2025-05-21 10:55:03",36,false,16984,4,"1038002",[],[],[],[],[]]