[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-JP2024020422421610295":3,"related-JP2024020422421610295":33},{"pageSize":4,"id":5,"productLine":6,"status":7,"articleCode":8,"articleType":9,"showStyle":7,"mediaType":10,"fileInputUrl":11,"articleTitle":12,"coverImage":13,"listImage":14,"introduction":15,"description":16,"nonVipDescription":17,"postTime":18,"viewTime":19,"sortNumber":20,"isFree":21,"isShowList":7,"isRecommend":21,"linkType":7,"isOriginal":6,"hasMiniUrl":21,"miniUrl":11,"miniScheme":11,"miniImage":11,"itemTag":11,"createBy":22,"updateBy":22,"createTime":23,"visitCount":24,"isLiked":21,"realSearch":25,"isRead":21,"productId":26,"isCollected":21,"collectCount":27,"vipExclusive":21,"allowComment":7,"style":28,"likeCount":7,"filePath":11,"duration":21,"playStyle":7,"seoKeywords":11,"articleModuleVoList":29,"extendContentList":30,"noteCount":21,"categoryList":31,"dailyKeywordList":32},10,6069,"1",1,"JP2024020422421610295","1041018",3,"","1 个「稳定变富」的思路","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F3375725c-d389-414b-8026-187a459f2892.png","https:\u002F\u002Fjane7-prod.oss-cn-hangzhou.aliyuncs.com\u002Fmanager\u002Farticle_default_img.png","杠铃策略，涨跌都舒适~","\u003Csection>\n \u003Csection>\n  \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">晚上好，我是简七编辑部的乔西。\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Csection>\n  \u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">最近的股市有点影响心情，有没有能让我「涨跌都舒适」的资产配置策略呢？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">我想到，以前同事给小伙伴们简单分享过的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">杠铃策略\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">，就很符合我的需求。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">于是我就去详细了解了一下。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"cursor: pointer; background: url("data:image\u002Fsvg+xml,%3Csvg width='8' height='2' viewBox='0 0 8 2' fill='none' xmlns='http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F2000\u002Fsvg'%3E%3Cpath d='M3.25 1.5H0.75C0.335786 1.5 0 1.16421 0 0.75C0 0.335786 0.335786 0 0.75 0H3.25C3.66421 0 4 0.335786 4 0.75C4 1.16421 3.66421 1.5 3.25 1.5Z' fill='%2307C160' fill-opacity='0.5'\u002F%3E%3C\u002Fsvg%3E%0A") 0px 100% \u002F auto 2px repeat-x transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">发现这是塔勒布在《黑天鹅》这本书中提出来的一种风险管理方法，也是他在自己的交易员生涯中，实践过的，且经过验证有效的策略。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">这个策略就像是给自己画了一条风险承受的「底线」，让我们\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">承担的风险是有限的，而收益是无限的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">这样我们就不会受到风险的伤害，而是在\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">面对未知时，能做到心中有数，心里有底气\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">今天就和小伙伴们详细扒一扒杠铃策略。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F17d45871-0d8d-45a5-b846-3b702716a310.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:center;margin: 0px 16px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">01 「黑天鹅」是什么？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">在说杠铃策略之前，咱们得先了解一下「黑天鹅」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">股市里有很多小动物，比如牛、熊、灰犀牛、黑天鹅...\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">其中咱们的主人公「黑天鹅」指的是——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">从未发生过，一旦发生，影响却非常剧烈的事件。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">比如2008年次级贷款引发的金融危机、2020年在全球流行的新冠病毒...\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">为什么是「黑天鹅」呢？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">17世纪以前，欧洲人认为这个世界上所有的天鹅都是白色的。当他们在探索世界时，在澳洲发现了第一只黑色的天鹅。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">而这一只黑天鹅的出现，就颠覆了欧洲人上千年的认知。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">这也说明，作为人类，我们的观察、认知、归纳是相当有限的。过往经验总结出的「定理」、「定论」只要遇到一次反例，就可以完全失效。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">塔勒布认为，「黑天鹅」事件有三个共性——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px;     letter-spacing: 0.544px;       text-decoration-thickness: initial;  line-height: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-size: var(--articleFontsize);\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">1、具有意外性\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">黑天鹅事件具有不可预测性，基本出现于认知范围之外，很难凭借过去已知的经验预测事件发生的可能性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">2、会产生重大影响\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">黑天鹅事件一旦发生，将会对整个环境造成非常大的冲击，它的影响范围是很重要的判断因素之一。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">3、事后诸葛\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">黑天鹅具备意外性，我们很难预测它在什么时候、什么条件下会发生。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">但人们不喜欢随机，而是喜欢「因果关系」「逻辑推断」，所以人的本性总是会促使人们事后为它的发生编造理由，使它变得可解释、可预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">而且黑天鹅不仅仅指宏观事件，我们每个人的生活中同样可能遇到，比如投资的股票突然暴跌、正常上班的一天被通知裁员、身体健康的亲友一夕之间躺在病床上......\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F20786298-44d5-4bb8-b390-b3976c31480c.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:center;margin: 0px 16px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">02 「黑天鹅」都是坏的吗？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">看到这，你可能会觉得「黑天鹅」都是不好的事情。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">其实，「黑天鹅」的核心是「未知、不确定性」，它的影响既有负面的，也有正面的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">比如青霉素的发现来源于一次实验样本被污染的「意外」，却造福了全人类；哥伦布本来是寻找到达印度的新航线，却意外发现了美洲大陆...\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">我们总是将视线聚焦于「正常」上，习惯于用过去的经验和知识指导未来。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">但黑天鹅的逻辑是，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">所以，对于未知的「黑天鹅」事件，我们不要预测而要适应他们的存在，确定一个事件对我们的影响要容易很多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">我们能清楚地知道某个事件的影响，比如地震的影响，即使我们不知道它发生的可能性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">所以，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">做决策时，你只需要了解事件的影响（这是你能知道的），不需要了解事件发生的可能性（这是你不可能知道的）\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">然后尽可能减轻负面影响，享受正面影响。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">塔勒布称之为\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">「不确定性的核心思想」\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fe32498fa-d76f-4e13-9121-7fea7ba8644e.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:center;margin: 0px 16px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">03 杠铃策略\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">那我们具体怎么做呢?\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">来说说文章开头提到的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">杠铃策略\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">，能让咱们的投资「风险有限、收益无限」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">塔勒布的主业是交易员，杠铃策略也是他自己工作中常用的投资策略，且获得了巨大的成功。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">简单来说就是只投资极低风险和极高风险的产品。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">将85-90%的钱投入极低风险的资产中\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">，比如国债，来享受确定性；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">剩下的10-15%投向极具不确定的高风险品种\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">，比如期权或期货，来享受「正向黑天鹅」带来的收益，完全放弃中等风险的投资品。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">万一遇到黑天鹅，低风险资产还是稳稳地赚收益，亏损只会产生在高风险品种中，不过因为比例不高，整个组合最多也就亏损10%不到，但要是押对方向，反而能大赚一笔。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:center;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fe381d7fd-5222-4cf3-a5dc-ec48547fe58a.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">举个例子——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">比如你有1万块钱，拿出8,500放在低风险的余额宝里，再把剩下的1500去买高风险的股票，那么股票要是遇到「黑天鹅」跌掉50%，你的1万块钱最多也就损失750元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">而塔勒布口中的期权，它可以看作是一种「保险」，没发生意外时，你损失的是保费；一旦有意外发生，你会获得一大笔赔偿金。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">塔勒布为了防范黑天鹅，常年买入美股的看跌期权——要是股市一直上涨，他损失的是期权费；而一旦股市大跌，别人都亏钱，他反而能从下跌中赚到大钱。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">最早一次出手是在1987年10月19日，当天道琼斯指数下跌22%，塔勒布从中赚了数千万美金。随后的911事件、金融危机、新冠疫情，每一次黑天鹅事件发生时，他总能如法炮制，赚得盆满钵满。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">虽然我们很难接触到期权、期货这类衍生品，但不妨学习一下杠铃策略的资产配置思想。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">当负面黑天鹅来临时，你会受到少量的亏损，而正向黑天鹅来临时，你会一夜暴富。用作者的说，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">就是让自己置身于一个好结果比坏结果影响大的多的环境中\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.034em; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F5ade6515-076f-4dfc-9006-962c5926ffba.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:center;margin: 0px 16px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">04 小结\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">最后，简单小结一下。黑天鹅是一种小概率，发生时冲击力极强的事件。对于我们来说，可以做好以下这几点——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">首先，放弃对黑天鹅事件的预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">黑天鹅事件是无法被预测的，我们不仅要放弃预测黑天鹅在什么情况下会发生，也要放弃预测黑天鹅事件在什么情况下不会发生。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">如此一来，我们就不会因为考虑了太多风险因素，而让生活、工作、投资的决策变得畏首畏尾，进而错过更好的机会。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">其次，是谨慎预防，未雨绸缪。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">虽然我们不能预测灾难，却可以预防灾难。比如在投资时想一想，万一账户出现大幅回撤，自己能不能接受；又或者给自己和家里人配置好保险，以防疾病和意外不期而至，产生意想不到的破坏性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">另外，可以采用「杠铃策略」合理配置自己的资源。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">不管是投资还是工作，杠铃策略都是一个不错的解决方案：将多数资源投入在低风险、低收益的位置\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">（买余额宝或做一份普通的工作）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">，并且将少量资源配备高风险、高收益的资产\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">（买股票、期权或用业余时间发展自己的兴趣爱好）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">好了，关于《黑天鹅》就和你聊到这里，感兴趣可以阅读原书哦，周末愉快~\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Cp style=\"text-align:justify;margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">晚安🌹\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003Csection>\n  \u003Cp>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003C\u002Fsection>","\u003Csection>\u003Cp style=\"margin-right: 16px; margin-left: 16px; line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">晚上好，我是简七编辑部的乔西。\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">最近的股市有点影响心情，有没有能让我「涨跌都舒适」的资产配置策略呢？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">我想到，以前同事给小伙伴们简单分享过的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">杠铃策略\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">，就很符合我的需求。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">于是我就去详细了解了一下。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"cursor: pointer; background-image: url("data:image\u002Fsvg+xml,%3Csvg width='8' height='2' viewBox='0 0 8 2' fill='none' xmlns='http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F2000\u002Fsvg'%3E%3Cpath d='M3.25 1.5H0.75C0.335786 1.5 0 1.16421 0 0.75C0 0.335786 0.335786 0 0.75 0H3.25C3.66421 0 4 0.335786 4 0.75C4 1.16421 3.66421 1.5 3.25 1.5Z' fill='%2307C160' fill-opacity='0.5'\u002F%3E%3C\u002Fsvg%3E%0A"); background-position: 0px 100%; background-size: auto 2px; background-repeat: repeat-x; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">发现这是塔勒布在《黑天鹅》这本书中提出来的一种风险管理方法，也是他在自己的交易员生涯中，实践过的，且经过验证有效的策略。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">这个策略就像是给自己画了一条风险承受的「底线」，让我们\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">承担的风险是有限的，而收益是无限的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">这样我们就不会受到风险的伤害，而是在\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">面对未知时，能做到心中有数，心里有底气\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">今天就和小伙伴们详细扒一扒杠铃策略。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fmmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLFP0y47k36rNGDhCM5HeemPTZzibYyT7q97SZBc8cEmoSejpfbhoCxlYgIzj9PyTM3oAzzaCIWbM5w\u002F640?wx_fmt=png\" alt=\"图片\"\u002F>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-align: center; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">01 「黑天鹅」是什么？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">在说杠铃策略之前，咱们得先了解一下「黑天鹅」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">股市里有很多小动物，比如牛、熊、灰犀牛、黑天鹅...\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">其中咱们的主人公「黑天鹅」指的是——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">从未发生过，一旦发生，影响却非常剧烈的事件。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">比如2008年次级贷款引发的金融危机、2020年在全球流行的新冠病毒...\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">为什么是「黑天鹅」呢？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">17世纪以前，欧洲人认为这个世界上所有的天鹅都是白色的。当他们在探索世界时，在澳洲发现了第一只黑色的天鹅。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">而这一只黑天鹅的出现，就颠覆了欧洲人上千年的认知。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">这也说明，作为人类，我们的观察、认知、归纳是相当有限的。过往经验总结出的「定理」、「定论」只要遇到一次反例，就可以完全失效。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">塔勒布认为，「黑天鹅」事件有三个共性——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.544px; font-size: var(--articleFontsize); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">1、具有意外性\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">黑天鹅事件具有不可预测性，基本出现于认知范围之外，很难凭借过去已知的经验预测事件发生的可能性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">2、会产生重大影响\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">黑天鹅事件一旦发生，将会对整个环境造成非常大的冲击，它的影响范围是很重要的判断因素之一。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">3、事后诸葛\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">黑天鹅具备意外性，我们很难预测它在什么时候、什么条件下会发生。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">但人们不喜欢随机，而是喜欢「因果关系」「逻辑推断」，所以人的本性总是会促使人们事后为它的发生编造理由，使它变得可解释、可预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">而且黑天鹅不仅仅指宏观事件，我们每个人的生活中同样可能遇到，比如投资的股票突然暴跌、正常上班的一天被通知裁员、身体健康的亲友一夕之间躺在病床上......\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fmmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLFP0y47k36rNGDhCM5HeemPTZzibYyT7q97SZBc8cEmoSejpfbhoCxlYgIzj9PyTM3oAzzaCIWbM5w\u002F640?wx_fmt=png\" alt=\"图片\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-align: center; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">02 「黑天鹅」都是坏的吗？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">看到这，你可能会觉得「黑天鹅」都是不好的事情。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">其实，「黑天鹅」的核心是「未知、不确定性」，它的影响既有负面的，也有正面的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">比如青霉素的发现来源于一次实验样本被污染的「意外」，却造福了全人类；哥伦布本来是寻找到达印度的新航线，却意外发现了美洲大陆...\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">我们总是将视线聚焦于「正常」上，习惯于用过去的经验和知识指导未来。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">但黑天鹅的逻辑是，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">所以，对于未知的「黑天鹅」事件，我们不要预测而要适应他们的存在，确定一个事件对我们的影响要容易很多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">我们能清楚地知道某个事件的影响，比如地震的影响，即使我们不知道它发生的可能性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">所以，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(214, 168, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">做决策时，你只需要了解事件的影响（这是你能知道的），不需要了解事件发生的可能性（这是你不可能知道的）\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">然后尽可能减轻负面影响，享受正面影响。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">塔勒布称之为\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">「不确定性的核心思想」\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fmmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLFP0y47k36rNGDhCM5HeemPTZzibYyT7q97SZBc8cEmoSejpfbhoCxlYgIzj9PyTM3oAzzaCIWbM5w\u002F640?wx_fmt=png\" alt=\"图片\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-align: center; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">03 杠铃策略\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">那我们具体怎么做呢?\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">来说说文章开头提到的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">杠铃策略\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">，能让咱们的投资「风险有限、收益无限」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">塔勒布的主业是交易员，杠铃策略也是他自己工作中常用的投资策略，且获得了巨大的成功。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">简单来说就是只投资极低风险和极高风险的产品。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">将85-90%的钱投入极低风险的资产中\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">，比如国债，来享受确定性；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 218, 169); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">剩下的10-15%投向极具不确定的高风险品种\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">，比如期权或期货，来享受「正向黑天鹅」带来的收益，完全放弃中等风险的投资品。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">万一遇到黑天鹅，低风险资产还是稳稳地赚收益，亏损只会产生在高风险品种中，不过因为比例不高，整个组合最多也就亏损10%不到，但要是押对方向，反而能大赚一笔。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: center; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fsz_mmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLHkicyFHffSTc0XneZ1qVrSfaGNCZe6dEv2UOsY8pILa7DhuKORP1saUkfziaWibq8jeHLdtJIOg1xYQ\u002F640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\" alt=\"图片\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">举个例子——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">比如你有1万块钱，拿出8,500放在低风险的余额宝里，再把剩下的1500去买高风险的股票，那么股票要是遇到「黑天鹅」跌掉50%，你的1万块钱最多也就损失750元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">而塔勒布口中的期权，它可以看作是一种「保险」，没发生意外时，你损失的是保费；一旦有意外发生，你会获得一大笔赔偿金。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">塔勒布为了防范黑天鹅，常年买入美股的看跌期权——要是股市一直上涨，他损失的是期权费；而一旦股市大跌，别人都亏钱，他反而能从下跌中赚到大钱。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">最早一次出手是在1987年10月19日，当天道琼斯指数下跌22%，塔勒布从中赚了数千万美金。随后的911事件、金融危机、新冠疫情，每一次黑天鹅事件发生时，他总能如法炮制，赚得盆满钵满。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">虽然我们很难接触到期权、期货这类衍生品，但不妨学习一下杠铃策略的资产配置思想。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">当负面黑天鹅来临时，你会受到少量的亏损，而正向黑天鹅来临时，你会一夜暴富。用作者的说，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">就是让自己置身于一个好结果比坏结果影响大的多的环境中\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fmmbiz.qpic.cn\u002Fmmbiz_png\u002FAm8Qfs8miaLFP0y47k36rNGDhCM5HeemPTZzibYyT7q97SZBc8cEmoSejpfbhoCxlYgIzj9PyTM3oAzzaCIWbM5w\u002F640?wx_fmt=png\" alt=\"图片\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px 16px; text-align: center; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 2em; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(214, 168, 65); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">04 小结\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">最后，简单小结一下。黑天鹅是一种小概率，发生时冲击力极强的事件。对于我们来说，可以做好以下这几点——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">首先，放弃对黑天鹅事件的预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">黑天鹅事件是无法被预测的，我们不仅要放弃预测黑天鹅在什么情况下会发生，也要放弃预测黑天鹅事件在什么情况下不会发生。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">如此一来，我们就不会因为考虑了太多风险因素，而让生活、工作、投资的决策变得畏首畏尾，进而错过更好的机会。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">其次，是谨慎预防，未雨绸缪。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">虽然我们不能预测灾难，却可以预防灾难。比如在投资时想一想，万一账户出现大幅回撤，自己能不能接受；又或者给自己和家里人配置好保险，以防疾病和意外不期而至，产生意想不到的破坏性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">另外，可以采用「杠铃策略」合理配置自己的资源。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">不管是投资还是工作，杠铃策略都是一个不错的解决方案：将多数资源投入在低风险、低收益的位置\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">（买余额宝或做一份普通的工作）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">，并且将少量资源配备高风险、高收益的资产\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">（买股票、期权或用业余时间发展自己的兴趣爱好）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">好了，关于《黑天鹅》就和你聊到这里，感兴趣可以阅读原书哦，周末愉快~\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px 16px; text-align: justify; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 1px; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 16px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">晚安🌹\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Csection>\u003Cp>\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fsection>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cbr\u002F>\u003C\u002Fp>","2024-02-05 09:00:00","2024-02-05 17:00:00",100,0,"liufei@jane7.com","2024-02-04 22:42:16",144,false,16023,6,"1038002",[],[],[],[],[]]