[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-JP2023011810032786635":3,"related-JP2023011810032786635":32},{"pageSize":4,"id":5,"productLine":6,"status":7,"articleCode":8,"articleType":9,"showStyle":7,"mediaType":10,"fileInputUrl":11,"articleTitle":12,"coverImage":13,"listImage":14,"introduction":15,"description":16,"nonVipDescription":11,"postTime":17,"viewTime":17,"sortNumber":18,"isFree":19,"isShowList":7,"isRecommend":19,"linkType":7,"isOriginal":6,"hasMiniUrl":19,"miniUrl":11,"miniScheme":11,"miniImage":11,"itemTag":11,"createBy":20,"updateBy":20,"createTime":21,"visitCount":22,"isLiked":19,"realSearch":23,"isRead":19,"productId":24,"isCollected":19,"collectCount":25,"vipExclusive":19,"allowComment":7,"style":26,"likeCount":27,"duration":19,"playStyle":7,"seoKeywords":11,"articleModuleVoList":28,"extendContentList":29,"noteCount":10,"categoryList":30,"dailyKeywordList":31},10,5359,"1",1,"JP2023011810032786635","1041018",3,"","人口变少，真的那么可怕吗？","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fcb3e51ec-498e-4f84-92c2-86cffd21b5fe.png","https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F395e6d74-d501-463c-af8b-b539b372f482.png","失业率可能会提高？","\u003Csection>\n \u003Csection>\n  \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em; text-align: center;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: #888888; font-size: 14px; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; visibility: visible; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>（文末照例有一张图总结）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n  \u003Cp style=\"text-align:center;margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); visibility: visible; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F0755e92f-a541-4445-b655-f254281312d3.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n  \u003Csection>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; color: #000000;\">大家好，我是很帅的狐狸\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #000000; font-size: 16px;\">统计局公布了去年各种数据\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #000000; font-size: 16px;\">人口总量竟然出现了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\"> \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 5px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-width: initial; border-style: none; border-color: initial; display: inline-block; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-radius: 5px; line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">负增长\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">今天我就来展开聊一聊\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Csection>\n    \u003Cbr>  \n   \u003C\u002Fsection>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">有人猜测说，是不是因为新冠防疫放开了，所以出现了大量超额死亡？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">我拉了下数据，发现\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">今年的死亡人数并不算太夸张\u003C\u002Fstrong>（比去年多了27万），死亡率也只比去年多了0.19‰。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">不过这个数据本身是用\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">统计抽样\u003C\u002Fstrong>的方式进行的——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">往年的样本数大概是120万人，而且抽样的工作时间是截至11月30日（来源：国家统计局公告2022年第2号），所以防疫政策变化后的超额死亡并没有被统计进来。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Csection>\n    \u003Cbr>  \n   \u003C\u002Fsection>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F722de7e2-3e40-4db5-ad9d-029211b65f63.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Csection>\n    \u003Cbr>  \n   \u003C\u002Fsection>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">Anyway，撇开这个因素不看，只看目前统计结果的话——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">人口缩水，更多的原因，还是在于出生人数的减少\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F8be3c471-24db-4a33-bfd6-bf0aefd44a6e.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">人口负增长的确会引发很多问题。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">供给端\u003C\u002Fstrong>方面会导致劳动力减少，所以少子化一般是跟老龄化被放到一起说的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">需求端\u003C\u002Fstrong>方面也有问题：人口除了是劳动力，也是消费力；人口增速下来了，对消费总量的增速也是个影响。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">今天我们就来探究下——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n   \u003Csection>\n    \u003Cbr>  \n   \u003C\u002Fsection>\n   \u003Ctable width=\"100%\">\n    \u003Ccolgroup style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; background-color: rgb(242, 242, 242);\">\n     \u003Ccol width=\"100%\" style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n    \u003C\u002Fcolgroup>\n    \u003Ctbody style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n     \u003Ctr style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" class=\"firstRow\">\n      \u003Ctd style=\"margin: 0px; outline: 0px; word-break: normal; hyphens: auto; border-color: rgb(242, 242, 242); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; padding: 5px 10px;\">\n       \u003Cul class=\" list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; width: 655.017px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n        \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">出生人数下降是因为什么？\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n        \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">潜在的解决方案是什么？\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n        \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">对我们会有什么冲击？\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n        \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">背后有没有什么投资机会？\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n       \u003C\u002Ful>\u003C\u002Ftd>\n     \u003C\u002Ftr>\n    \u003C\u002Ftbody>\n   \u003C\u002Ftable>\n   \u003Csection>\n    \u003Csection>\n     \u003Cbr>    \n    \u003C\u002Fsection>\n    \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n    \u003Csection>\n     \u003Cbr>    \n    \u003C\u002Fsection>\n    \u003Ch1 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; text-align: center; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 20px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">Part 1\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh1>\n    \u003Ch1 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; text-align: center; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 20px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">👶 出生人数下降是因为？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh1>\n    \u003Csection>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">首当其冲自然还是\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">疫情\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">打完新冠疫苗得隔几个月才能\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">备孕，感染新冠后也会影响精子质量。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">另外就是疫情对经济的冲击，让人们对未来收入没有明确预期，所以会更加慎重地考虑生孩子的决定。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">我们看出生率的数据也可以看出来——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">本来出生率还可以苟一苟，疫情一来，往下掉得厉害。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">另一个对出生率影响比较大的，是\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">生育意愿\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">前面我们看到，就算没有疫情，出生率本身也是往下走的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">根据《中国人口普查年鉴》的数据，中国的女性平均初婚年龄，已经从1990年的22.15岁上升到2020年的27.95岁了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">女性的初育年龄也从2006年的24.3岁被推迟到了2016年的26.9岁。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F5e358c40-b4b4-4105-9daa-6fa592be89d6.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">这个现象的背后，其实是所谓的\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">「马尔萨斯陷阱」\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">经济发展了，生活水平会提高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">不过这只是「短暂的假象」——人口的增速往往会更高，所以摊到每个人头上的物资会逐渐变少，最后导致\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">生活水平陷入停滞\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">这时候，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">人口会自我调节\u003C\u002Fstrong>——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">在\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">死亡率\u003C\u002Fstrong>层面，每当人口过剩时，人均资源不够，各国会互相抢资源，这会导致战争。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">人口超过环境承载力之后，大自然也会通过瘟疫、饥荒等方式，对人口进行「调节」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F408c20e2-8c83-4eed-a504-3689117966ff.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">在\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">生育率\u003C\u002Fstrong>层面，一旦生活水平陷入停滞，老百姓们会被迫在「自己的面包」和「孩子的面包」之间做权衡。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">每个家庭出生的孩子数量会减少，甚至会出现现在很流行的「丁克」（DINK，双份收入没有小孩）。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">比如我身边有不少朋友都是在年轻的时候选择了「奋斗」——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">要么追求学术上的成就读多几个学位，要么在职场上加班拼杀。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">人口普查年鉴里也有个有意思的数据——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F78ec7255-d831-43b0-ae4c-f9b84c12cd9c.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fa7cc6e66-13b4-4768-b0f8-7b453c7cc35e.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">而对女性来说，年龄越大，生育风险也越高；对男性来说，年龄大了，精子质量也会下降（崔元起，2009）。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">从这个角度来看，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">辅助生殖板块\u003C\u002Fstrong>倒是很有前途。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">顺带一提，也有个有意思的假说——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">因为教育水平高的人后代会越来越少，同时教育水平低的人后代越来越多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">这可能会导致人类的智商不断下滑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">Anyway，这种人口的自我调节，一般得等到技术层面出现「大爆发」之后，资源利用率上去了，才能让生活水平有多一轮上升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;\">长期来看，这会形成一个循环——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">所以从周期的角度来看，我们的人口出现负增长，其实是个\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">必然\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Ch1 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; text-align: center; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 20px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">Part 2\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh1>\n     \u003Ch1 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; text-align: center; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 20px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">🍼 潜在的解决方案是什么？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh1>\n     \u003Cp>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n     \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">潜在的解决方案，有两个——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n     \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n     \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: #0080FF; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">方案1：优化资源分配\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n     \u003Csection>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">人均物资不够之余，资源分配上也有优化的空间。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">根据瑞士信贷的《2022年全球财富报告》，全球最富有的1%人口拥有全球46%的财富（2020年这一比例是44%）。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n      \u003Csection>\n       \u003Cbr>      \n      \u003C\u002Fsection>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">之前我们也会一直说，压制中国人口出生率有「新·三座大山」——\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">住房\u003C\u002Fstrong>、\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">医疗\u003C\u002Fstrong>、\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">教育\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">而在过去几年，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">房住不炒\u003C\u002Fstrong>、\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">带量采购\u003C\u002Fstrong>、\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">教育双减\u003C\u002Fstrong>都是在尝试解决这三座大山带来的问题。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">这些政策，本质上也是在经济结构上进行\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">资源重新分配\u003C\u002Fstrong>的过程。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">所以我们可以看到过去这几年，中国的贫富差距是在逐渐减少的——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F44d325a8-b27f-4bc8-aaad-d21f2ec76608.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n      \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: #0080FF; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">方案2：加速技术爆炸\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n      \u003Csection>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">除了微观上对分配进行调整，我们也应该竭尽所能，尽快过渡到下一个阶段。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">所以加速技术爆炸的到来很重要。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">这也是为什么国家这些年在推行科创板等资本市场改革、扶持各种专精特新企业的底层原因。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">只有技术不断创新，才可以真正把资源利用率、把人均产能给拉上来。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F2f16be0a-0f2f-489c-afbf-8691a905e4d9.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Csection>\n        \u003Cbr>      \n       \u003C\u002Fsection>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">不过上面的这两个方案，都很难一蹴而就。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">领导说了，「共同富裕是一个长远目标，需要一个过程，不可能一蹴而就」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">技术创新上，时间自然也是绕不过的——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">中国工程院院士倪光南就提到过，在芯片领域上，「虽然我们有华为海思、中芯国际等国际知名的芯片设计和芯片制造企业，但就整体产业发展而言，相较国际先进水平，我们可能需要一二十年才能追赶上。」\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">所以处在过渡期的我们，自然也会面临不少冲击——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n       \u003Ch1 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fh1>\n       \u003Csection>\n        \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n        \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n        \u003Ch1 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; text-align: center; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 20px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">Part 3\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh1>\n        \u003Ch1 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; text-align: center; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 20px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">😫 对个体会有什么冲击？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh1>\n        \u003Cp>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n        \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n        \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">落到个体层面，有几个现象可能会持续很长一段时间。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n        \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n        \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: #0080FF; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">现象1：失业人群可能变多\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n        \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n        \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px 16px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">技术爆炸一旦被加快，自然会面临失业问题。\u003C\u002Fh2>\n        \u003Csection>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">当年第一次工业革命的时候，珍妮纺织机被发明之后，大量纺织工人下岗，甚至引发了到处砸纺织机的「卢德运动」。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 14px; color: #888888;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">截图\u002F\u003C\u002Fstrong> 说书人国师\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Csection>\n          \u003Cbr>        \n         \u003C\u002Fsection>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">当下，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">有些人的工作也被机械、或者是人工智能给替代了。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">比如我以前提过的一个案例——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">有个好友在帮一些工厂做咨询。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">有个她服务过的华南工厂，几年前有几万个工人。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">现在大部分流程都改成机器了，工人只剩下几百个。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Csection>\n          \u003Cbr>        \n         \u003C\u002Fsection>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">而且还有些工厂在「渐进式」改革——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">朋友提到，她最近有个客户，以前一条产线36人；现在一条产线加了两个小机器，可以减掉10个员工。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Csection>\n          \u003Cbr>        \n         \u003C\u002Fsection>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Ff2891163-5519-4e4e-ad93-8470fc6cf38d.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">也不单单是高度标准化的工种才会被替代掉。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">几年前也有新闻说，高盛的纽约办公室的交易员，从600多人裁剩下两个。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">确实，目前很多工种会逐渐被机器、人工智能给替代掉。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">不过，同时也会有越来越多的其他岗位会出现，而这些岗位的门槛往往会更高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F373dc22c-d984-420f-a655-8c51643f2b0b.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">高盛虽然裁掉了交易员，但也招了很多算法工程师。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">未来，帮人工智能迭代算法的岗位可能也会越来越多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">不过在那之前，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">「结构性失业」会成为常态：\u003C\u002Fstrong>有的行业人才会极度供不应求，而有的行业，岗位可能会越开越少。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">在过渡期，国家也想了办法——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">养老、家政、托幼这些行业，都是需要跟人互动的，短时间内是没法被人工智能或机器人给替代的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">所以国家给了很多这些产业的支持政策。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">不过还有一个隐性问题——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">今天（1月17日）统计局也公布了2022年年底的全国城镇调查失业率数据，勉强回到了5.5%的「及格线」（去年《政府工作报告》的目标）。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">年轻人（16~24岁）的失业率还是有点难看（16.7%）。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">但有一个没统计的群体，失业率可能更高——\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">大龄失业者\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">年轻人们的失业毕竟只是暂时的，也就是所谓的\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">「周期性失业」\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">等到经济回暖，要找工作也就不难了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">而四五十岁的大龄失业者，特别是没有「硬核技术」的那些人，一旦被开除了，这时候要再找工作，就没那么容易了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F80d3fae9-cdb5-455a-ae44-b73f22dfde38.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">从这个角度来看，转职类的职业培训倒是挺有机会。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n         \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #0080FF;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">现象2：人力资本回报上升\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n         \u003Csection>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">因为后续出现的岗位，门槛会越来越高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">换句话说，投资在教育上的回报，也会越来越高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">或者说，如果没有持续在教育上投资的话，未来要找到工作本身就很难。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;\">也因为这样，叠加大学扩招，学历贬值得很厉害——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fbc1e6437-eeac-470f-a612-1538fe312540.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 14px; color: #888888;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">截图\u002F\u003C\u002Fstrong> 豆瓣\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Csection>\n           \u003Cbr>          \n          \u003C\u002Fsection>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;\">从父母的角度，这时候会主动思考子女的质与量的平衡。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F22602cc2-bfdc-4f4e-9b4d-9495a03fd4fa.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Csection>\n           \u003Cbr>          \n          \u003C\u002Fsection>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">把时间拉长来看，这也是为什么人类是一直在进步的底层理由。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">现在毕业的小学生，跟我小时候相比，掌握的知识量差得肯定不止一丁半点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Csection>\n           \u003Cbr>          \n          \u003C\u002Fsection>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">虽然学科内培训不给搞了，但是学科外的那些大家还是在不断卷。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">我前几天就在抖音刷到一个儿童机器人编程的课（适合3~5岁），我还假装已经有娃了，买了个试听课做调研。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n          \u003Ch2 style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); white-space: pre-wrap; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: #0080FF; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">现象3：人力成本上升\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n          \u003Csection>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">人口负增长也意味着劳动力总量会供不应求，工资也会水涨船高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">虽然这几年大家可能感受不到收入的明显上升，毕竟经济增速下来了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">不过过去很长一段时间，中国居民收入增速还是很高的——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F1f426e43-23f4-4dd1-8f46-28eb899de7ec.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">人力成本高了，自然会导致\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">「国际产业梯次转移」\u003C\u002Fstrong>：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">劳动力密集型产业自然得往外转。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">比如我爬了下Nike制鞋工厂的分布数据，发现这些年它们一直在往越南迁——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F4e929965-344a-4a63-aa93-7a27c98d0260.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Csection>\n            \u003Cbr>          \n           \u003C\u002Fsection>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">毕竟今年印度人口都将超过我们，成为世界第一了（联合国去年7月份的预测），所以这样的产业转移确实是必然，也没什么好抱怨的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">类似的产业梯次转移以前也发生过几次——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">最早是日本承接了美国的劳动力密集型产业，后来由亚洲四小龙（中国香港\u002F中国台湾\u002F韩国\u002F新加坡）承接。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">再到后来才是中国内地。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">现在咱的人力成本贵了，再转移出去也很正常。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">而另一边，我们也在持续承接越来越多的资本密集型产业，比如汽车产业我们已经超过德国和韩国了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fc31d07b6-a969-4151-96b1-fe1e9d0163d4.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">虽然劳动力变贵了，但制造业企业还是要生产的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">从这个角度来看，\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">工业机器人\u003C\u002Fstrong>也是个挺好的赛道。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Csection>\n            \u003Cbr>          \n           \u003C\u002Fsection>\n           \u003Csection>\u003C\u002Fsection>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px;\">照例来个一张图总结——\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Csection>\n            \u003Cbr>          \n           \u003C\u002Fsection>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002F9740df6c-db13-4efd-a693-e44a7f2b7cbd.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fb6375c08-8ee0-4420-b1f0-b8b02a11c16b.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Csection>\n            \u003Cbr>          \n           \u003C\u002Fsection>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimage.jane7.com\u002Fb8552ea1-5615-4a21-bd2d-b1e1946f3450.jpg\" alt=\"图片\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 14px;\">🤑\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">「Greed is good.」\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Csection>\n            \u003Cbr>          \n           \u003C\u002Fsection>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">「很帅的投资客」的所有内容皆仅以传递知识与金融教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。一切请以最新文章为准。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Csection>\n            \u003Cbr>          \n           \u003C\u002Fsection>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">⚠️ 风险提示：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">人口下跌趋势超预期；产业转移速度超预期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">📖 相关阅读：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003Cul class=\" list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); width: 577.417px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;\">\n            \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">《\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MzAwODMyMTY0Ng==&mid=2650605690&idx=2&sn=b2e988d7c56de48afc63c005aced9217&chksm=8379077bb40e8e6d54c0fd606dc6d8535f792f673f87db4983103173fb392f304629b458c533&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; color: rgb(87, 107, 149); text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;;color:#409eff\">中国的未来：走向效率型增长\u003C\u002Fa>》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n            \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">《\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MzAwODMyMTY0Ng==&mid=2650613453&idx=1&sn=210b766c29fda10a08ed057e817a3fcd&chksm=837929ccb40ea0da662122de06063d530d54875f2072d8e7f3f5356916f955904fd124f7cbab&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; color: rgb(87, 107, 149); text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;;color:#409eff\">人口数据真的有问题吗？\u003C\u002Fa>》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n            \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">《\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MzAwODMyMTY0Ng==&mid=2650602819&idx=1&sn=5243b12486e2385c0fe133ef55ee461c&chksm=8378f242b40f7b54523064e4116e0f4f66e74059258aae79391f88ddc07378bd94e7987af3c3&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; color: rgb(87, 107, 149); text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;;color:#409eff\">比起要不要为国生娃，更应该操心的是…\u003C\u002Fa>》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n            \u003Cli>\u003Cp style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">《\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\u002F\u002Fmp.weixin.qq.com\u002Fs?__biz=MzAwODMyMTY0Ng==&mid=2650613747&idx=1&sn=355beb2cd1dea5b5e6c83aa5723a81ec&chksm=837928f2b40ea1e48abeabf44f7d54fbc6a97cbfdca3a309fad48a35cf7d7cd9bc9105807adf&scene=21#wechat_redirect\" style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; color: rgb(87, 107, 149); text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;;color:#409eff\">中国的老龄化真的很严重吗？\u003C\u002Fa>》\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003C\u002Fli>\n           \u003C\u002Ful>\n           \u003Csection>\n            \u003Csection>\n             \u003Cbr>            \n            \u003C\u002Fsection>\n            \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">图文\u002F\u003C\u002Fstrong> 狐狸\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n            \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888; font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">Icon\u002F\u003C\u002Fstrong> freepik from flaticon\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n            \u003Cp style=\"line-height: 2em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 14px;\">\u003Cstrong style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888;\">主创\u002F \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: #888888;\">肖璟，@狐狸君raphael，曾供职于麦肯锡金融机构组，也在 Google 和 VC 打过杂。华尔街见闻、36氪、新浪财经、南方周末、Linkedin等媒体专栏作者，著有畅销书《风口上的猪》《无现金时代》。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n            \u003Cp>\u003Cbr>\u003C\u002Fp>\n           \u003C\u002Fsection>\n          \u003C\u002Fsection>\n         \u003C\u002Fsection>\n        \u003C\u002Fsection>\n       \u003C\u002Fsection>\n      \u003C\u002Fsection>\n     \u003C\u002Fsection>\n    \u003C\u002Fsection>\n   \u003C\u002Fsection>\n  \u003C\u002Fsection>\n \u003C\u002Fsection>\n\u003C\u002Fsection>","2023-01-19 06:25:00",100,0,"jane7@jane7.com","2023-01-18 10:03:27",198,false,15175,14,"1038002",11,[],[],[],[],[]]